Triple Distilled Communications

It’s not just Irish whiskey. We are not the only ones struggling, the only ones being left on the shelf. In the classic breakup style, it’s not us, it’s them, where them is anyone who enjoys an adult beverage. People are drinking less all over the world, there is a move among younger people towards more moderate drinking (which is good) rather than the Covid binges (which were bad) or the decades previous when people of my generation absolutely leathered it (which was very bad). Times change, and people change with it; a global cost of living crisis and greater focus on health and wellness means people are not spending as much as they used to on booze, and if they do, it’s not whiskey they are buying. And this significant fall off in demand means supply has to adjust. 

Great Northern Distillery (GND) in Dundalk is one of the biggest producers on the island. Founded by industry legend Dr John Teeling after he sold Cooley to Beam Suntory, GND boasts both a grain plant with a capacity of 12 million litres, and a malt plant with an eight million litre capacity. This makes GND the second-largest distilling complex in Ireland, and their strategy revolves around supplying mature and new make malt, pot still, and grain bulk whiskey to customers who have their own brands of Irish whiskey, offering products ranging from new make to 18-year-old whiskeys. GND distils the equivalent of one million bottles of whiskey each week, serving more than 300 customers who operate worldwide. Late last year it was revealed that Great Northern Distillery enjoyed pre-tax profits of €32m. 

In March 2024 they outlined where they saw Irish whiskey going over the next decade. The air of optimism throughout the document is somewhat diminished now, but it still provides valuable insight into where the category actually was in terms of output: This table shows the largest producers: 

Current Capacity	Grain	Malt / Pot Still
IDL	70.0 million max	6.0 million (plans to double)
Cooley	3.0 million	1.0 million
Bushmills		5.0 million
GND	12.0 million	4.0 million (expansion plans)
Grants	10.0 million	1.8 million to 3.6 million
Others	1.0 million	3.5 million
Total	96 million	24.5 million

Even that doesn’t capture how much output – or potential output – the industry has, as in 2023 Bushmills opened their new €43.5 million Causeway Distillery, more than doubling their production capacity from five million litres of alcohol per annum to 11m litres per annum. They also have planning permission for a new grain distillery. 

This table shows sales by case: 

Critics of the Irish whiskey boom would say that it is really just the Jameson boom – and looking at those figures, you can see why. If the total cases sold in a year is 15.5 million, and more than ten million of them are Jameson, you have a boom based on one brand making up two thirds of all sales. Jameson, obviously, is a broad church, and unless you saw a pretty granular breakdown you couldn’t say whether there is a chunk of those that are non-core Jamesons. But I would hazard a guess that the bulk is the core blend – that easy sipping, smooth, affordable and approachable Irish whiskey upon which the category balances. Such was the demand over the last 15 years for this iconic drink that Irish Distillers Ltd started work on a new distillery alongside their current plant in Midleton, the engine room for much of the category since 1975. The proposed expansion will facilitate an increase in production capacity of the distillery across the expanded site from 70 million litres per annum (MLA) to 133 MLA. It was intended to be operational in 2025. 

On Thursday last, Irish Distillers Limited announced it was pausing production in the main distillery for three months, telling the Irish Farmers Journal that it was ‘adjusting its production schedule for a routine, periodic review’ but that it would recommence in the summer. On Sunday, the Sunday Times revealed that not only were they pausing production, the completion dates on the new distillery had been pushed out, telling the paper that the timeline of the new distillery had ‘evolved’ but that construction was still progressing on site and Irish Distillers remained ­’absolutely committed’ to the new distillery (this may also be a factor in the delay). The same piece in the Times also revealed how Bushmills had slashed production of whiskey, while John Teeling’s Great Northern Distillery had also cut back on malt whiskey production since December. But while the three biggest producers are cutting back, mid-size operators are far more vulnerable to falling sales and rising costs. 

In November last year news broke that Waterford Distillery was being placed into receivership. Reports suggest the company owes HSBC approximately €70 million. 

In mid-February, the Irish Independent reported that another Waterford-based producer, Blackwater Distillery, was struggling to survive, with a process adviser appointed in an effort to rescue the business. In late February the Irish Independent also reported that Powerscourt Distillery breached a loan agreement with a large US lender after a €4.6m funding round was delayed. All three of these were founded or funded by people who understood whiskey – Mark Reynier had decades of experience with Bruichladdich, Powerscourt had the founders of Isle Of Arran distillery on the board, and Peter Mulryan had spent decades studying the industry as an author and journalist. These were not uninformed prospectors who had blundered their way into the industry. They knew the risks, the rise and fall. But I doubt the words ‘natural lifecycle’ bring much comfort when things get tight, and they are not so small that they can afford to quietly shut until things pick up, nor are they big enough to ride out the storm without hardship. And these are simply the ones we know about.

The few industry people I spoke to about what happens next had an air of cold optimism – that this was, in fact, the natural lifecycle – there was always going to be a crash, always going to be a shakeout, always going to be losses. Not much comfort to anyone who invested in a distillery – either as a professional or casual aficionado (feel free to ask those who bought Nephin casks how they feel about their investment). Reality has sunk its teeth in and is not letting go, and of the 48 or so distilleries that are GI-certified producers of Irish whiskey, the future is not as bright as it was five years ago – below is a list: 

Beyond Ireland, Roe & Co owner Diageo has temporarily paused production at its carbon-neutral whiskey distillery in Kentucky ‘to support the firm’s productivity goals’. In November, they halted the development of their Crown Royal Distillery in Canada. Last month they withdrew their medium-term sales forecast and yesterday the Business Post reports that drinkers in the UK are ditching spirits at double the rate of the rest of Europe. In the surest sign that things are well beyond bad, there were even rumours that Guinness might be sold. 

As for Brown Forman, owner of Slane Distillery, the Jack Daniel’s maker announced that it was to slash 12% of its workforce (600+ jobs) as alcohol consumption dries up. They also announced they were closing their barrel-making plant in Kentucky. The CEO of Brown-Forman believes the decline in spirits is due to “cyclical inflation” rather than structural changes. 

Becle, owner of Bushmills, announced in late February that it was facing an $80 million hit from Trump’s tariffs. And as owner of Proper No. Twelve – the brand founded and fronted (up until the verdict) by shamed former MMA star Conor McGregor – will also have to reap the whirlwind it signed up for when it bought the brand from him.  

We have had ten years of extraordinary growth in the category but what remains to be seen is where the natural level lies for Irish whiskey – how many distilleries can survive the hard times, and in ten or 20 years, how many of the 47 or so will remain. If the current American President applies 25% tariffs on all Irish whiskey, it may be a far lower number than any of us could predict.